Introduction
If you’ve built a business in HVAC, plumbing, manufacturing, landscaping, or other service trades — 2025 may be the most strategic time in recent memory to consider selling. Several converging trends are reshaping the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) landscape for blue-collar industries, and waiting too long may mean missing a rare window of opportunity.
Baby Boomers Are Exiting — and It’s Creating a Wave
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, nearly 12,000 Americans turn 65 every day, and many of them are business owners. In the blue-collar sector, where ownership is often still family-based or founder-led, this generational turnover is hitting hard.
What it means for you: more companies are entering the market every quarter. The earlier you prepare, the better positioned you’ll be against the competition.
Private Equity and Strategic Buyers Are Still Hungry
Despite economic headwinds, private equity (PE) firms and strategic acquirers continue to pursue well-run service businesses. Why?
- Recurring revenue models (e.g., maintenance contracts) are attractive.
- Many blue-collar industries are fragmented, offering room for roll-ups.
- Margins in these businesses are often stronger than tech, with less volatility.
According to PitchBook, PE deal volume in the lower middle market (under $100M EV) rebounded 11% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year.
Companies with solid EBITDA, processes, and a professional workforce are getting noticed — and rewarded.
Interest Rates Are Stabilizing (But for How Long?)
For much of 2022–2024, rising interest rates made leveraged buyouts more expensive. But 2025 has shown signs of stabilization. Buyers can borrow again — cautiously.
This affects:
- Valuations (they can hold steady instead of dropping)
- Deal structure (more cash at close becomes possible)
- Timeline (faster closings, more competitive bidding)
Still, uncertainty remains. The Fed’s future policy could quickly shift the market — another reason 2025 feels like a “now or never” moment.
Buyers Are More Selective Than Ever
It’s not enough just to have a “good business.” Buyers want:
- Clean financial statements
- Limited owner dependency
- Documented processes
- Strong customer retention
- Team stability
The “founder-in-the-middle-of-everything” model won’t fly anymore. In 2025, buyers are prioritizing de-risked acquisitions.
Multiples Are Holding — For the Right Businesses
If your business checks the boxes, you can still command 5–8x EBITDA, sometimes more for niche trades with stable cash flows and regional dominance.
Example:
A New England-based HVAC company with $3.5M revenue and 18% EBITDA margin recently closed at 7.2x EBITDA due to recurring contracts, remote-ready ops, and second-tier management in place.
Why Waiting May Hurt Your Valuation
Delaying your exit could mean:
- More crowded market (supply > demand)
- Aging business systems that lower valuation
- Fatigue and risk of plateauing performance
- Regulatory shifts (especially in environmental or licensing standards)
The takeaway: your window may not be open forever.
Common Mistakes Sellers Make in 2025
“I’ll Just Wait Another Year or Two”
By then, 20–30% more competitors may be on the market.
“My Business Is Worth More Because I Built It”
Valuation is based on market forces, not emotional attachment.
“I Don’t Want to Share Financials Yet”
Buyers need transparency. Lack of prep kills deals before they start.
How to Prepare for a 2025 Exit
Even if you’re not ready to sell today, here’s what you should be doing:
- Clean and normalize your P&L
- Document operational processes
- Reduce customer concentration
- Build your second-tier team
- Engage an advisor to benchmark valuation